Despite the 14-day ceasefire between the United States and Iran, hopes for a swift resumption of maritime traffic in the Gulf have been dashed. More than 24 hours after President Trump announced the truce—conditioned specifically on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz—commercial shipping remains at a near-standstill. AIS tracking data from Pole Star Global reveals that while a handful of vessels have transited the waterway since the ceasefire took effect, the vast majority were bound exclusively for Iranian ports.
According to AXSMarine, approximately 959 vessels are currently positioned west of the Strait of Hormuz within the Gulf. While this is down from a recent peak of 1,016 vessels, the firm noted that the figure still represents a ‘significant backlog‘ of maritime traffic.
International traffic appears to have declined since April 5, when Windward recorded a peak of 20 transits—the highest since the conflict began on February 28. These movements were restricted to vessels approved by Tehran, either through the payment of a transit fee via the so-called “Tehran Tollbooth” or through bilateral agreements for safe passage with various Asian governments.
In the wake of the ceasefire, freedom of navigation remains elusive. Shipping companies face a chaotic environment as Iran maintains its claim over the waterway and continues to demand tolls. Alarmingly, reports have surfaced of threats broadcast over VHF Channel 16, warning vessels of “destruction” if they attempt to transit the Strait without explicit Iranian authorization.
Significant concerns remain that the ceasefire may collapse, exacerbated by Israel’s continued strikes on Lebanon—actions that mediator Pakistan asserts are a direct violation of the agreement.
According to the Iranian news agency FARS, Tehran suspended all tanker traffic through the Strait on Wednesday afternoon in retaliation for these strikes. While permission had been granted for two tankers to transit earlier that day, the passage has since been sealed. Consequently, Iran’s Ports and Maritime Organisation has mandated that all vessels must coordinate with Iranian naval forces. New mandatory routes have been designated: north of Larak Island for inbound traffic and south of Larak for outbound vessels. Authorities have declared the traditional southern route a ‘hazardous zone’ closed to all traffic, though it remains unverified whether the area has actually been mined.
